On July 27, 2026, the global semiconductor market saw long-awaited warming. According to the latest data from industry research institutions, global semiconductor sales in Q2 2026 grew 6.8% quarter-on-quarter, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%, marking the first positive growth after three consecutive quarters of decline. Among them, memory chip prices rebounded strongly, with DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices rising 12% and 8% respectively from the previous quarter, becoming the main engine driving market recovery.
Memory Chips Lead, Supply-Demand Improves
By segment, memory chip recovery is most significant. Major manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology sharply cut capital expenditure in H2 2025 while accelerating transition to high-end products like DDR5 and HBM3E, effectively alleviating oversupply. Additionally, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI servers and data centers continues to surge, with HBM3E orders booked through 2027. On NAND Flash, enterprise SSD demand driven by cloud computing and AI training has pushed prices up.
Wafer Foundry Capacity Utilization Returns to Above 90%
The wafer foundry sector also sends positive signals. TSMC's Q2 2026 financial report shows its advanced process (7nm and below) capacity utilization at 95%, with 5nm and 3nm capacity fully loaded, mainly from HPC and AI chip orders from Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD. Samsung Electronics also announced its 4nm and 3nm line utilization above 85%, planning to start 2nm trial production in H2. UMC and SMIC, among other mature process foundries, generally see utilization recover to 85%-90%, benefiting from steady demand in IoT, automotive electronics, and power management chips.
Strong AI Chip Demand, Auto Chip Inventory Adjustment Near End
AI is undoubtedly the strongest growth driver in the semiconductor market. NVIDIA's latest quarterly revenue surged 45% year-on-year, with data center revenue exceeding expectations, and its Blackwell architecture GPU remains in short supply. AMD and Intel are also accelerating AI chip deployments, with MI400 and Gaudi 3 shipments rising significantly. According to Gartner, the global AI chip market will exceed $80 billion in 2026, up 35% year-on-year.
On automotive chips, after over a year of destocking, industry inventory has returned to healthy levels. Order lead times for automotive chip makers like NXP, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics have shortened to 8-12 weeks, but structural shortages remain, especially in SiC power devices and high-end MCUs. Vietnam, as a key part of the global automotive electronics supply chain, saw packaging and testing orders from Japanese and Korean companies increase 15% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, expected to benefit from auto chip restocking in H2.
Vietnam Semiconductor Sector Poised for Growth
Amid global semiconductor recovery, Vietnam, leveraging its geographical and labor cost advantages, is accelerating integration into the global semiconductor ecosystem. Ho Chi Minh City Hi-Tech Park's semiconductor exports grew 22% year-on-year in Q2, mainly from Intel, Samsung, and Amkor's packaging and testing operations. Additionally, the Vietnamese government's "National Semiconductor Development Strategy" issued in December 2025 aims to build at least 10 advanced packaging plants by 2030 and attract the world's top 20 semiconductor companies. Several packaging giants, including ASE and JCET, have announced capacity expansion in northern Vietnam.
Outlook: H2 Market Expected to Continue Improving
Looking ahead to H2 2026, most analysts are optimistic. WSTS revised its 2026 global semiconductor market growth forecast to 12.4%, with total revenue reaching $620 billion, surpassing the 2022 historical peak. However, geopolitical risks and weak terminal consumer electronics demand remain potential challenges. U.S. export controls on China may disrupt supply chains, while the replacement cycle for traditional consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs is not yet clear. Overall, driven by AI, automotive electronics, industrial automation, and IoT, the semiconductor industry is entering a new growth cycle.
For investors, current positioning in semiconductor stocks should focus on structural opportunities. Memory and AI chips are the most certain tracks; among foundries, leaders with advanced process capabilities are highly valuable; Vietnamese semiconductor sector benefits from capacity transfer and policy support, offering long-term growth potential. With the traditional peak season approaching in H2, the global semiconductor market is expected to see both volume and price increases.