I. AI and Automotive Electronics: Core Drivers of Semiconductor Demand
In 2026, demand growth in the semiconductor industry mainly comes from two major fields: artificial intelligence (AI) and automotive electronics. The demand for AI chips continues to surge, especially for high-performance computing (HPC) chips and memory (such as HBM), driving tight capacity in advanced processes. NVIDIA's released Blackwell B200 chip has such strong computing power demand that TSMC's 3nm capacity is fully loaded until 2027, and the price surge of HBM4 memory also reflects the supply-demand imbalance of memory chips. On the other hand, the intelligent trend of automotive electronics, such as the popularization of autonomous driving, smart cockpits, and electric vehicles, has led to a significant increase in demand for automotive-grade chips. According to industry data, the automotive electronics chip market size is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in 2026, with particularly prominent demand for autonomous driving chips and power semiconductors.
The demand growth from AI and automotive electronics has changed the structure of the semiconductor market: chip prices for advanced processes (such as 3nm, 5nm) continue to rise, while chip prices for mature processes (such as 28nm, 40nm) show differentiation. Some mature processes see price softening due to overcapacity, but mature processes in specific fields like automotive-grade chips still maintain stable demand.
II. Supply and Demand: Tension in Advanced Processes, Adjustment in Mature Processes
1. Advanced Processes: Full Capacity, Sustained Premium
Advanced processes are the "hot cakes" in the current semiconductor market. The 3nm and 5nm capacities of manufacturers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are almost fully loaded, especially with orders for AI chips, leading to continuous price increases for advanced processes. TSMC's 3nm capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high before 2027, and Samsung's 3nm process is also actively expanding production to meet the demand for AI chips. In addition, the capacity of advanced packaging technologies (such as CoWoS) is also tight, as AI chips require more complex packaging to support the integration of high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
The premium of advanced processes is not only reflected in price but also in delivery cycles. According to industry reports, in September 2026, the average delivery cycle for advanced process chips is 24-36 weeks, much higher than the 12-18 weeks for mature processes. This tight supply-demand situation has led to significant profit growth for chip manufacturers of advanced processes (such as NVIDIA, AMD) and record-high revenue for foundries.
2. Mature Processes: Price Softening, Structural Differentiation
Unlike the tension in advanced processes, the mature process chip market shows differentiation. On one hand, some mature processes (such as logic chips, consumer electronics chips) see price softening due to overcapacity. For example, in August 2026, the quotation for mature process logic chips was reduced by 5%-10%, mainly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics market, such as the slowdown in sales growth of smartphones and personal computers. On the other hand, mature processes in specific fields like automotive-grade chips and power semiconductors still maintain stable demand. For instance, the market for silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors has surged, and the popularization of 8-inch production lines has increased capacity, but it still cannot meet the demand of the electric vehicle market, keeping prices high.
The differentiation of mature processes reflects the structural changes in the semiconductor market: demand for traditional consumer electronics weakens, while demand in emerging fields (such as automotive electronics, industrial control) grows. This change requires manufacturers of mature processes to adjust their capacity structure and shift to high-demand areas.
III. Vietnam's Semiconductor Supply Chain: Arrival of the Strategic Opportunity Period
1. Policy Support: Implementation of Vietnam's Semiconductor Strategy
In recent years, the Vietnamese government has strongly supported the development of the semiconductor industry, issuing the "Vietnam Semiconductor Industry Development Strategy (2025-2030)" to position Vietnam as a semiconductor manufacturing and packaging & testing center in Southeast Asia. The strategy includes measures such as tax incentives, land support, and talent training, attracting investments from global semiconductor manufacturers. For example, Samsung's packaging & testing plant in Vietnam is expanding production, and TSMC is also considering establishing a packaging & testing base in Vietnam.
Additionally, Vietnam cooperates with semiconductor powerhouses like Japan and South Korea to introduce advanced technologies and equipment. For example, Vietnam and Japan have established a semiconductor talent training base to cultivate local IC design and packaging & testing talents. These policy supports provide a favorable environment for the development of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain.
2. Talent Reserves: Bootcamps and Local Talent Cultivation
Talent is the core competitiveness of the semiconductor industry. In recent years, Vietnam has cultivated local IC design and packaging & testing talents through projects like the "Semiconductor Bootcamp". For example, the Vietnam Semiconductor Bootcamp has been launched in Ho Chi Minh City, offering AI chip design courses to enhance the practical capabilities of local engineers. In addition, Vietnam cooperates with universities to offer semiconductor-related majors such as IC design and semiconductor processes, supplying talents for the industry.
According to data, the number of Vietnam's semiconductor talents increased by 20% year-on-year in 2026, with IC design and packaging & testing talents accounting for the highest proportion. These talent reserves enable Vietnam to undertake capacity transfers from global semiconductor manufacturers, especially in packaging & testing and mature process manufacturing.
3. Local Manufacturing: 28nm Process Mass Production, Accelerating Independent Progress
Vietnam's local semiconductor manufacturing has made new breakthroughs, with the 28nm process successfully achieving mass production, marking an important step for Vietnam in the semiconductor manufacturing field. Although 28nm is a mature process, it is a key process for many applications (such as automotive-grade chips, industrial control). Local chip manufacturers in Vietnam (such as VinSmart under Vingroup) have achieved mass production of the 28nm process by introducing technology, laying the foundation for Vietnam's independent semiconductor progress.
Moreover, Vietnam is actively developing the packaging & testing industry. Samsung's packaging & testing plant in Vietnam has started production, and TSMC is also considering establishing a packaging & testing base in Vietnam. The landing of these capacities enables Vietnam to undertake packaging & testing demands from global semiconductor manufacturers, becoming a packaging & testing center in Southeast Asia.
IV. Investment Opportunities: Long-term Value of Vietnam's Semiconductor Supply Chain
For investors, Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain has long-term investment value. First, policy support provides guarantees for industrial development, and tax incentives and land support reduce corporate operating costs. Second, the gradual improvement of talent reserves enables Vietnam to undertake more capacity transfers. Third, breakthroughs in local manufacturing gradually enhance Vietnam's position in the semiconductor industry chain, extending from packaging & testing to manufacturing.
Specifically, investors can focus on the following areas:
- Packaging & Testing: The expansion of packaging & testing plants by manufacturers like Samsung and TSMC in Vietnam has driven demand for packaging & testing equipment and services.
- IC Design: Talents cultivated by the Vietnam Semiconductor Bootcamp enable local IC design companies (such as FPT Software) to undertake global IC design orders.
- Mature Process Manufacturing: The mass production of the 28nm process enables Vietnam to produce automotive-grade chips, industrial control chips, etc., meeting the demands of emerging fields.
- Power Semiconductors: The growing demand for silicon carbide power semiconductors brings opportunities to Vietnam's power semiconductor industry, especially with the popularization of 8-inch production lines.
V. Conclusion: Vietnam's Opportunities in the Restructured Supply-Demand Landscape
In September 2026, the supply-demand landscape of the global semiconductor market is being restructured. The dual engines of AI and automotive electronics drive demand growth, while the tension in advanced processes and differentiation in mature processes change the market structure. Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain, leveraging policy support, talent reserves, and breakthroughs in local manufacturing, is entering a strategic opportunity period. For investors, Vietnam's semiconductor industry has long-term investment value, especially in packaging & testing, IC design, mature process manufacturing, and power semiconductors. With the implementation of Vietnam's semiconductor strategy, Vietnam is expected to become a semiconductor manufacturing and packaging & testing center in Southeast Asia, providing new capacity support for the global semiconductor market.
