Deep Analysis of Semiconductor Market in September 2026: Sustained AI Demand Explosion, Price Divergence in Mature Processes, New Opportunities for Vietnam's Supply Chain

As the third quarter of 2026 progresses, the global semiconductor market presents an unprecedentedly complex landscape. The sustained explosion of AI technology injects strong momentum into the industry, while the price divergence trend between mature and advanced processes becomes increasingly evident. Against this backdrop, Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain is entering an unprecedented strategic opportunity period, becoming a focal point for global investors. This article will delve into the core dynamics of the current semiconductor market, providing readers with comprehensive market insights and investment references.

1. AI-Driven Demand Explosion in Advanced Processes

In 2026, the rapid development of AI technology has become the strongest growth engine for the semiconductor industry. From cloud data centers to edge computing devices, the demand for AI chips shows explosive growth. In particular, the latest Blackwell B200 chip released by NVIDIA, along with the rush for HBM4 memory by major manufacturers, further drives up the production capacity demand and price levels of advanced processes.

According to industry data, in the third quarter of 2026, the wafer foundry capacity utilization rate for advanced processes of 7nm and below has reached over 95%, with some capacity even booked until 2027. The 3nm capacity of major foundries like TSMC and Samsung is fully loaded, while the trial production of 2nm processes is accelerating. This tight supply-demand situation has directly led to the continuous rise in wafer quotes for advanced processes, with some high-end process quotes increasing by 15%-20% compared to the same period last year.

In the AI chip design field, the surge in computing power demand drives innovation in chip architecture. From traditional CPU+GPU combinations to today's multi-chip integration solutions, semiconductor design is undergoing profound changes. This transformation not only enhances chip performance but also increases the demand for advanced packaging technology. The expansion of advanced packaging capacity has become a new hotspot in the semiconductor industry, with major manufacturers increasing their investment to meet the demand for high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration from AI chips.

Notably, the explosive growth of AI chips is not limited to the consumer electronics sector; traditional industries such as automotive electronics and industrial automation are also accelerating their intelligent transformation, with sustained growth in demand for high-performance chips. This diversified demand structure provides the semiconductor industry with more stable and sustainable growth momentum.

2. Intensifying Price Divergence Trend in Mature Processes

In sharp contrast to the hot advanced processes, the mature process market is experiencing a complex situation of price divergence. In the third quarter of 2026, wafer quotes for mature processes show a clear divergence trend: on one hand, some general-purpose mature processes face price pressure due to overcapacity; on the other hand, mature processes in specific application fields maintain price stability due to strong demand.

In the general-purpose mature process field, excessive capacity expansion in recent years has led to oversupply. In the third quarter of 2026, the capacity utilization rate of some 8-inch wafer fabs has dropped below 80%, with corresponding wafer quotes falling by 5%-8% from the beginning of the year. This downward price pressure mainly affects chip demand in sectors such as consumer electronics and some communication equipment.

However, in specific application fields, the demand for mature processes remains strong. Especially in automotive electronics, industrial control, and IoT devices, mature processes still dominate due to their cost advantages and reliability. The demand for mature processes in these fields maintains stable growth, with some key process quotes even showing slight increases. For example, the mature process quotes for MCUs and power semiconductor devices used in automotive electronics increased by 3%-5% in the third quarter.

This price divergence trend reflects that the semiconductor market is shifting from a single price cycle to more segmented structural changes. Differences in demand for process nodes across different application fields, as well as different technical route choices by manufacturers, jointly lead to the complex situation in the mature process market.

3. Strategic Opportunities for Vietnam's Semiconductor Supply Chain

Against the backdrop of the reshaping of the global semiconductor landscape, Vietnam is gradually becoming an important part of the global semiconductor supply chain by leveraging its unique geographical advantages and policy support. In 2026, the Vietnamese government officially released the 'Vietnam Semiconductor Industry Development Strategy', providing clear policy guidance and financial support for the industry's development.

The rise of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

Packaging and Testing Capacity Expansion: Vietnam, with its relatively low labor costs and good infrastructure, is becoming an important destination for the transfer of global packaging and testing capacity. Many international semiconductor companies have established packaging and testing bases in Vietnam. In the third quarter of 2026, Vietnam's packaging and testing capacity increased by over 20% compared to the same period last year.
Enhancement of IC Design Capabilities: The Vietnamese government is actively improving local IC design capabilities by establishing semiconductor boot camps and providing talent training. The Vietnam Semiconductor Boot Camp in Ho Chi Minh City has successfully trained a batch of local design talents, laying a talent foundation for the improvement of Vietnam's semiconductor industry chain.
Increased Policy Support: The Vietnamese government attracts semiconductor investment through various means such as tax incentives, land policies, and financial subsidies. Especially in 2026, the government launched special support policies for semiconductor enterprises, including corporate income tax reductions and R&D expense subsidies, further enhancing the attractiveness of Vietnam's semiconductor industry.
Demand for Supply Chain Diversification: Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, enterprises' demand for supply chain diversification is increasingly strong. As an important manufacturing base in Southeast Asia, Vietnam's superior geographical location can effectively reduce logistics costs and improve supply chain resilience, making it an important choice for enterprises to disperse supply chain risks.

The rise of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain not only brings development opportunities for Vietnam itself but also provides new investment hotspots for global investors. Especially in fields such as packaging and testing, IC design services, and semiconductor equipment manufacturing, Vietnam is showing great development potential.

4. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations

Looking ahead, the semiconductor industry will continue to maintain a complex and diversified development trend. The continuous evolution of AI technology will drive the sustained growth of demand for advanced processes, while the mature process market will show more segmented structural changes. In this process, the strategic position of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain will be further enhanced.

For investors, the current investment opportunities in the semiconductor market are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

Advanced Process-Related Enterprises: With the sustained growth of AI chip demand, leading enterprises in the advanced process field will benefit from tight capacity and rising prices. Especially those with technological advantages in 3nm and below processes are expected to gain higher market share and profit levels.
Mature Process Segmented Fields: In the mature process market, investors should focus on leading enterprises in specific application fields, such as chip design and manufacturing enterprises in automotive electronics and industrial control. These enterprises can maintain competitiveness in the mature process market by leveraging their advantages in specific fields.
Vietnam's Semiconductor Industry Chain: The rise of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain provides new investment opportunities. Especially in fields such as packaging and testing, IC design services, and semiconductor equipment manufacturing, Vietnamese enterprises have obvious cost advantages and growth potential. Investors can pay attention to semiconductor enterprises with layouts in Vietnam and local Vietnamese semiconductor startups.
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials: With the expansion of semiconductor capacity and technological progress, the demand for semiconductor equipment and materials will continue to grow. Especially in the advanced process field, the demand for high-precision equipment and high-performance materials will be more urgent. Investors can focus on enterprises with technological advantages in the semiconductor equipment and materials field.

Overall, the semiconductor market in the third quarter of 2026 presents a complex landscape driven by AI demand for advanced processes, price divergence in mature processes, and the rise of Vietnam's supply chain. In this process, investors need to closely follow market dynamics, grasp structural opportunities, and pay attention to risk control to achieve long-term stable investment returns.

5. Conclusion

The semiconductor market in September 2026 is at a critical turning point. The continuous development of AI technology is reshaping the semiconductor industry's landscape, while the divergence of the mature process market reflects profound changes in the industry structure. The rise of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain provides new opportunities for global investors and injects new vitality into the diversified development of the semiconductor industry.

For readers of Vietnam Investment Information Network, in-depth understanding of the current dynamics of the semiconductor market, grasping AI demand, price changes in mature processes, and opportunities in Vietnam's supply chain will help make more informed investment decisions. We recommend that readers continuously follow the latest developments in the semiconductor industry, combine their own investment strategies, grasp market opportunities, and achieve investment goals.