Deep Analysis of Global Semiconductor Market in September 2026: AI Demand Continues to Surge, Vietnam's Semiconductor Supply Chain Enters Golden Development Period
As 2026 enters the third quarter, the global semiconductor market exhibits unprecedented vitality and transformation. Driven by artificial intelligence technology, chip demand continues to surge, especially with strong growth in fields like high-performance computing, autonomous driving, and IoT, injecting new momentum into the semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, as an emerging semiconductor manufacturing base, Vietnam's supply chain is entering a golden development period, attracting global investors' attention. This article will deeply analyze the current semiconductor market trends, explore market dynamics, supply-demand changes, and Vietnam's strategic opportunities in the semiconductor industry.
I. Overview of the Global Semiconductor Market: AI Demand Leads Growth
In September 2026, the global semiconductor market continues to maintain strong growth momentum, mainly due to the explosive development of AI applications. According to the latest market data, global semiconductor sales increased by 15.2% year-on-year, reaching a record $58 billion. Among them, AI chip demand grew by over 30% year-on-year, becoming the core engine driving market growth.
In the AI chip field, high-end GPUs and dedicated AI chips from manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD remain in short supply, with orders booked until 2027. This demand comes not only from data centers but also from multiple fields such as edge computing, autonomous driving, and smart devices. As generative AI, large language models, and other technologies become popular, the demand for computing power shows exponential growth, further pushing up chip prices and production capacity demand.
Besides AI chips, the automotive electronics field also shows strong growth potential. With the rapid development of electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology, the demand for automotive-grade chips has surged. According to industry analysis, the automotive chip market size is expected to reach $45 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 18%. In particular, key components such as high-performance computing chips, sensors, and power semiconductors have become the focus of competition among automakers.
II. Wafer Foundry Market: Intensified Divergence Between Advanced and Mature Processes
The wafer foundry market showed a clear divergence trend in September 2026. Advanced processes (7nm and below) continue to face tight capacity, while mature processes (28nm and above) face pressure from overcapacity.
Leading foundry manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung have their advanced process capacity fully loaded until 2027, especially for 3nm and 5nm process nodes, with strong order demand. This supply-demand imbalance has led to continuous price increases for advanced process chips, with premiums for some high-end chips even exceeding 20%. To meet the growing demand, major foundry manufacturers are increasing capital expenditure to expand advanced process capacity.
In contrast, the mature process market faces the challenge of overcapacity. Due to the slowdown in smartphone market growth and the decline in demand from some traditional application fields, the capacity utilization of 28nm and above processes has decreased. To address this situation, foundry manufacturers are starting to adjust their product structures, shifting more resources to chip production for fields such as automotive electronics, industrial control, and IoT.
Notably, Vietnam shows unique advantages in the mature process field. As the trend of global supply chain diversification strengthens, Vietnam, with its cost advantages and geographical location, has become an important base for mature process chip manufacturing. Multiple international semiconductor manufacturers have begun investing in wafer fabs in Vietnam, and it is expected that Vietnam's wafer capacity will increase by more than 50% by 2027.
III. Memory Chip Market: Divergent Trends of DRAM and NAND
The memory chip market showed divergent trends of DRAM and NAND in September 2026. The DRAM market continues to maintain strong growth, while the NAND market faces certain adjustment pressure.
The DRAM market benefits from the demand for AI servers and high-end smartphones, with contract prices continuously rising. In particular, the demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has surged. As AI chips' requirements for memory bandwidth continue to increase, HBM has become a new growth point in the memory chip market. According to industry reports, the HBM market size is expected to reach $12 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 40%.
However, the NAND market faces the challenge of slowing demand. Although the demand for NAND from smartphones and data centers remains stable, the weakness in the consumer electronics market has led to weak overall demand growth. In addition, as storage technology advances, the number of layers in 3D NAND continues to increase, and the unit storage cost continues to decline, also putting pressure on market prices.
The divergent trends in the memory chip market reflect demand changes in different application fields. The explosion of AI applications has driven demand for high-performance storage, while the saturation of the traditional consumer electronics market has led to slower demand growth for mid-to-low-end storage. This divergence provides new market opportunities for memory chip manufacturers but also brings challenges.
IV. Vietnam's Semiconductor Supply Chain: Strategic Opportunities and Investment Value
As an important economy in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has played an increasingly important role in the semiconductor supply chain in recent years. As the global semiconductor industry diversifies, Vietnam, with its cost advantages, geographical location, and policy support, has become a focus of investors.
The Vietnamese government attaches great importance to the development of the semiconductor industry and has introduced a series of policy measures, including tax incentives, land support, and talent cultivation, to attract international semiconductor enterprises to invest. Especially in fields such as wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, and IC design, Vietnam has made certain progress. Multiple international semiconductor manufacturers have established production bases in Vietnam, including well-known enterprises like Samsung and Intel.
In terms of wafer manufacturing, Vietnam is gradually transitioning from low-end packaging and testing to mid-end manufacturing. Although Vietnam's current wafer capacity is mainly concentrated in mature processes, with technological progress and increased investment, Vietnam is expected to enhance its position in the semiconductor industry chain in the next few years. Especially in the fields of automotive electronics and industrial control, Vietnam's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities will play an important role.
In the packaging and testing field, Vietnam has formed a relatively complete industrial chain. Multiple international packaging and testing enterprises have established factories in Vietnam, utilizing Vietnam's cost advantages and labor resources to provide high-quality packaging and testing services to global customers. As the semiconductor industry further develops, Vietnam's packaging and testing capabilities will continue to improve, becoming an important part of the global semiconductor supply chain.
In the IC design field, Vietnam is actively cultivating local design talents and attracting international design companies to invest. By establishing semiconductor practical camps and training bases, Vietnam is building a local IC design talent ecosystem. These measures not only enhance Vietnam's position in the semiconductor industry chain but also provide new opportunities for investors.
V. Semiconductor Equipment Market: Domestic Substitution and Technological Innovation
The semiconductor equipment market showed a trend of accelerated domestic substitution and technological innovation in September 2026. As global semiconductor industry competition intensifies, countries are increasing investment in the semiconductor equipment field, promoting technological innovation and domestic substitution.
In the semiconductor equipment field, manufacturers from countries such as China, South Korea, and Japan are gradually increasing their market share. Especially in fields like lithography machines, etching machines, and thin-film deposition equipment, the technical level of domestic equipment is continuously improving, and some products have reached the international advanced level. This domestic substitution trend not only reduces the cost of semiconductor manufacturing but also enhances the stability of the supply chain.
Technological innovation is an important driving force in the semiconductor equipment market. As advanced processes continue to develop, the requirements for equipment performance are getting higher and higher. To meet this demand, equipment manufacturers are continuously increasing R&D investment and launching new-generation equipment. For example, improvements in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, breakthroughs in high-precision etching technology, etc., provide technical support for the development of the semiconductor industry.
In Vietnam, the semiconductor equipment market also shows a growth trend. With the rapid development of Vietnam's semiconductor industry, the demand for equipment is continuously increasing. International equipment manufacturers are entering the Vietnamese market one after another, providing advanced manufacturing equipment and technical support. At the same time, local Vietnamese enterprises are gradually improving their equipment manufacturing capabilities, providing support for the development of the semiconductor industry.
VI. Future Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities Coexist
Looking to the future, the global semiconductor market will continue to maintain a growth trend, but it also faces many challenges. First, the stability of the supply chain is an important issue facing the industry. Uncertainty factors such as geopolitical factors, natural disasters, and pandemics may all affect the semiconductor supply chain. To address these challenges, countries and enterprises are promoting supply chain diversification to reduce dependence on a single region.
Second, technological progress is the key to the development of the semiconductor industry. With the rapid development of technologies such as AI, 5G, and IoT, the requirements for chip performance and functions are continuously improving. Semiconductor manufacturers need to continuously innovate and launch chips with higher performance and lower power consumption to meet market demand.
For Vietnam, the semiconductor industry faces huge development opportunities. As global supply chains diversify, Vietnam is expected to become an important semiconductor manufacturing base. Through government policy support, enterprise investment, and talent cultivation, Vietnam's semiconductor industry is expected to achieve leapfrog development and become an important part of the global semiconductor supply chain.
VII. Investment Recommendations: Grasping the Long-term Value of the Semiconductor Industry
For investors, the semiconductor industry has long-term investment value. Under the background of continuous surge in AI demand and strong growth in automotive electronics, the semiconductor industry is expected to maintain steady growth. Investors can focus on the following fields:
- AI Chip Field: As AI applications become popular, the demand for high-performance computing chips will continue to grow, and related enterprises are expected to achieve good performance.
- Automotive Electronics Field: The development of electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology will drive the growth of demand for automotive-grade chips, and related enterprises have good investment opportunities.
- Semiconductor Equipment Field: As the semiconductor industry develops, the demand for equipment continues to increase, and equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from industry growth.
- Vietnam's Semiconductor Supply Chain: As Vietnam's semiconductor industry develops rapidly, related enterprises are expected to obtain good investment returns.
However, investors also need to pay attention to industry risks, including technological changes, market competition, and policy changes. In investment decisions, they should comprehensively consider industry trends, enterprise fundamentals, and market environment to make rational investment choices.
Conclusion
In September 2026, the global semiconductor market shows a pattern of continuous surge in AI demand and Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain entering a golden development period. Driven by the dual forces of technological innovation and market demand, the semiconductor industry is expected to maintain steady growth. As an emerging semiconductor manufacturing base, Vietnam's supply chain is facing important development opportunities. Investors should grasp industry trends, focus on investment opportunities with long-term value, while paying attention to risk control to achieve stable investment returns.
