In September 2026, the global semiconductor market entered a new cycle of price adjustments. With the deepening application of AI technology, the chip demand structure has undergone significant changes: demand for advanced process chips (such as GPUs and NPUs for AI training and inference) continues to grow, keeping related capacity and prices high; while mature process chips (such as MCUs and power management chips for automotive and consumer electronics) are seeing price softening due to oversupply. This divergent pattern not only reflects supply-demand changes in the semiconductor industry but also brings new development opportunities for Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain.
I. AI Demand Boom: Advanced Process Node Prices Remain High, Capacity Fully Booked Until 2027
Since 2026, AI chips have become the core driver of the semiconductor market. For example, NVIDIA's Blackwell B200 chip, using 3nm technology, shows significant performance improvements over the previous generation and is widely used in data centers and autonomous driving. Affected by this, advanced process capacity at foundries like TSMC and Samsung remains fully booked, with orders extending into 2027. According to industry data, in Q3 2026, foundry quotes for 3nm technology were up 15%-20% year-on-year, and 5nm quotes were up 10%-15%.
The high premium for advanced process nodes stems from two main factors: first, the extreme pursuit of computing power by AI chips requires more advanced processes to enhance performance and energy efficiency; second, capacity constraints, as advanced process capacity is concentrated in the hands of a few manufacturers, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and firm prices. For instance, TSMC's 3nm capacity is fully booked by major clients like NVIDIA and Apple, with new orders waiting until 2027 for delivery, further increasing the scarcity of advanced nodes.
II. Mature Process Node Prices Weaken: Oversupply Reverses Supply-Demand Dynamics
In sharp contrast to the hot market for advanced nodes, the mature process chip market is experiencing price corrections. In Q3 2026, foundry quotes for mature nodes like 28nm and 40nm were down 5%-10% year-on-year. The main reason for this change is oversupply: in recent years, several manufacturers (such as SMIC and GlobalFoundries) have expanded mature process capacity, increasing market supply; while on the demand side, growth in sectors like consumer and automotive electronics has slowed, with demand for mature process chips not meeting expectations.
The price softening of mature nodes is a boon for downstream companies but also puts pressure on upstream manufacturers. For example, some foundries specializing in mature nodes have had to lower prices to maintain market share, and some are even adjusting their capacity structure to shift some capacity to more advanced nodes. However, this adjustment also accelerates the survival of the fittest in the semiconductor industry, with manufacturers possessing cost advantages and technical strength gaining more opportunities.
III. Vietnam's Supply Chain: Key Production Base for Mature Process Nodes, Policy Support Drives Industrial Upgrading
Against the backdrop of softening mature node prices, Vietnam, leveraging its cost advantages and policy support, has become a key link in the global semiconductor supply chain. In recent years, the Vietnamese government has introduced a series of policies to encourage the development of the semiconductor industry, including tax incentives, land support, and talent cultivation. For example, in July 2026, the Vietnamese government released the 'Semiconductor Industry Development Strategy (2026-2030)', which explicitly aims to position Vietnam as a semiconductor manufacturing and packaging/testing hub in Southeast Asia.
In terms of manufacturing, Vietnamese local enterprises have achieved mass production of 28nm technology, a significant breakthrough for the country's semiconductor industry. In August 2026, a Vietnamese semiconductor company announced that its 28nm chips have been successfully applied in the consumer electronics sector, marking Vietnam's competitiveness in mature process manufacturing. Furthermore, Vietnam has attracted investment from several international semiconductor companies, such as Samsung and TSMC, which have established packaging and testing bases in Vietnam to leverage its low-cost labor advantage and reduce production costs.
Vietnam's advantage is even more pronounced in the packaging and testing sector. Packaging and testing is a labor-intensive segment of the semiconductor industry chain. Vietnam has abundant labor resources, and its labor costs are lower than traditional packaging and testing bases like China and Malaysia. In 2026, Samsung's packaging and testing capacity in Vietnam accounted for 30% of its global capacity, and TSMC also established a packaging and testing center in Vietnam, further enhancing Vietnam's position in the semiconductor supply chain.
IV. Industry Analysis: Investment Opportunities Amid Supply-Demand Divergence
The current supply-demand divergence in the semiconductor market provides clear investment directions for investors. First, companies related to advanced process nodes (such as TSMC and NVIDIA) will continue to benefit from AI demand growth, with their stock prices and performance expected to remain high. Second, leading companies in the mature process sector (such as SMIC and GlobalFoundries), although facing price pressure, can still maintain competitiveness through capacity adjustments and technological upgrades, making them worth watching.
For Vietnam's semiconductor industry, investment opportunities mainly lie in two areas: first, mature process manufacturing and packaging/testing, which are Vietnam's current strengths and the focus of policy support; second, the semiconductor talent ecosystem, as the Vietnamese government is promoting AI chip design training to cultivate local engineers and provide talent support for industry development. For example, in September 2026, Ho Chi Minh City established a semiconductor bootcamp, focusing on AI chip design and packaging/testing training, attracting many young people and cultivating a reserve force for Vietnam's semiconductor industry.
Furthermore, the improvement of Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain also brings opportunities for investors. As more international companies enter Vietnam, the demand for supporting industries (such as semiconductor equipment and materials) will increase, and related companies are expected to benefit. For example, in 2026, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. (AMEC) established a semiconductor equipment service center in Vietnam to provide local companies with equipment maintenance and technical support, further enhancing the supporting capabilities of Vietnam's semiconductor industry.
V. Conclusion: Divergent Semiconductor Market Trends, Vietnam's Supply Chain Enters a Golden Era of Development
In September 2026, the global semiconductor market showed a divergent pattern of 'premium for advanced nodes, softening for mature nodes,' a trend that reflects the profound impact of AI demand on the industry. For Vietnam, the softening of mature node prices is both a challenge and an opportunity. Leveraging its cost advantages and policy support, Vietnam is poised to become a key link in the global semiconductor supply chain, attracting more investment and driving industrial upgrading.
In the future, as AI technology continues to develop, demand for advanced nodes will keep growing, while the mature node market will remain stable. Vietnam's semiconductor industry needs to seize this opportunity by strengthening R&D and talent cultivation to enhance its industrial chain competitiveness and secure a place in the semiconductor market. For investors, focusing on companies in advanced process nodes and those related to Vietnam's semiconductor supply chain will be key to capitalizing on semiconductor market trends.
