In 2026, the global semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented structural changes. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and automotive electronics is reshaping the chip supply-demand landscape, bringing new opportunities and challenges to the entire industry chain. According to the latest market data, the global semiconductor market size grew by 12.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, with AI chips and automotive electronics becoming the dual engines driving industry growth. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the current global chip supply-demand situation, explore industry development trends, and examine the strategic opportunities for Vietnam in the global semiconductor industry chain.
Surging AI Chip Demand, Persistent Supply-Demand Imbalance
The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology is driving explosive growth in AI chip demand. With the popularization of large language models (LLMs) and multimodal AI applications, the demand for high-performance computing chips has surged. Major chip companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel have successively launched new generations of AI-specific chips, intensifying market competition.
Data shows that the global AI chip market reached $45 billion in the second quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of over 35%. Among these, data center AI chips accounted for the highest share at 65%, followed by edge computing AI chips at 25%, with the remaining 10% being terminal device AI chips. This growth trend is expected to continue in the coming years, with the global AI chip market projected to exceed $100 billion by 2028.
However, the supply capacity of AI chips is struggling to meet the rapidly growing market demand. Advanced process chips, especially those with 7nm and below processes, face severe capacity shortages. The advanced process capacity of foundries like TSMC and Samsung has been booked through 2027, leading to extended delivery cycles for AI chips of 6-12 months. This supply-demand imbalance is driving up AI chip prices, further intensifying market tensions.
In the AI chip segment, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging technologies have become key bottlenecks. With the exponential growth in AI model parameters, demand for HBM memory has surged. Currently, HBM4 memory is experiencing supply shortages, with prices increasing by over 30% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the capacity of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and InFO has also become a limiting factor, further constraining AI chip supply capabilities.
Automotive Electronics Wave Drives Chip Demand Diversification
Meanwhile, the wave of automotive electronics is driving diversification in chip demand. With the popularization of intelligent driving, connected cars, and electric vehicles, the demand for various types of chips in automobiles has significantly increased. Industry statistics show that a traditional gasoline vehicle requires an average of 500-1000 chips, while a high-end smart electric vehicle needs 1500-3000 chips, and some autonomous vehicles may require over 5000 chips.
In the second quarter of 2026, the automotive chip market reached $28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the semiconductor industry. Among these, microcontrollers (MCUs), image sensors, power semiconductors, and sensor chips are in the highest demand. Especially with the commercialization of L3 and above autonomous driving technologies, demand for high-performance computing chips (HPC) and dedicated AI processors has shown explosive growth.
The automotive chip supply chain is undergoing profound changes. Traditional automotive chip suppliers like NXP, Infineon, and Renesas are facing fierce competition from consumer electronics chip giants. At the same time, the chip shortage issue has not been completely resolved, especially in mature process nodes, with automotive chip delivery cycles still as long as 6-9 months, becoming one of the main factors constraining automotive production capacity.
Notably, automotive chips are evolving from traditional MCUs to system-on-chips (SoCs) and domain controllers. This transformation not only increases chip complexity but also raises demand for advanced process technologies. By 2028, the proportion of automotive chips using 28nm and above processes is expected to decrease from the current 60% to 40%, while chips using 10-28nm processes will increase from 35% to 45%, and chips using 7-10nm processes will increase from 5% to 15%.
Global Chip Supply Chain Restructuring, Clear Regionalization Trends
Against the backdrop of reshaping the chip supply-demand landscape, the global semiconductor supply chain is undergoing profound restructuring. Geopolitical factors, pandemic impacts, and rising protectionism have prompted countries to strengthen the localization of their semiconductor industry chains. The United States, European Union, Japan, and mainland China have all introduced large-scale semiconductor industry support policies, promoting the return or regional layout of chip manufacturing.
As an emerging global semiconductor manufacturing center, Vietnam is facing unprecedented development opportunities. With advantages in labor costs, policy support, and an open attitude toward participating in global supply chains, Vietnam has become a hot spot for semiconductor investment. In recent years, many international semiconductor giants such as Intel, Samsung, and SK Hynix have expanded their investment layouts in Vietnam, covering packaging and testing, design, and some manufacturing segments.
Data shows that Vietnam's semiconductor industry investment reached $3.5 billion in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 45%, reaching a historic high. Among these, the packaging and testing sector accounted for the highest share at 60%, followed by chip design at 25%, with the remaining 15% being materials and other segments. The Vietnamese government expects that by 2030, the semiconductor industry will become an important engine for Vietnam's economic growth, with an industry scale expected to reach $20 billion.
However, Vietnam's semiconductor industry still faces numerous challenges. Talent shortage is one of the main bottlenecks, especially in high-end chip design and advanced process manufacturing. Additionally, inadequate infrastructure and incomplete industry chain support are constraining the rapid development of Vietnam's semiconductor industry. To address these challenges, the Vietnamese government is actively promoting semiconductor talent development programs, establishing practical training bases through international cooperation, and strengthening infrastructure construction.
Clear Divergence Between Mature and Advanced Processes, Different Price Trends
The current global chip market shows a clear divergence trend, with the supply-demand situation and price trends of mature and advanced processes being completely different. The mature process (28nm and above) chip market shows a situation of oversupply, with prices continuously falling; while the advanced process (7nm and below) chip market faces undersupply, with prices continuously rising.
In the second quarter of 2026, mature process wafer foundry prices decreased by 15-20% year-on-year, with chips using 40nm and above processes showing the most significant price drops. This price decline is mainly due to weak consumer electronics market demand and the significant expansion of mature process capacity in Taiwan and mainland China. However, demand growth in automotive electronics and industrial control sectors partially offset the decline in the consumer electronics market, keeping the mature process chip market relatively stable.
In contrast, the advanced process chip market remains tight. Wafer foundry prices for 7nm and 5nm processes increased by 20-30% year-on-year, with 3nm process prices rising by over 40%. This price increase is mainly driven by strong demand for advanced processes from AI chips and high-end smartphones. The capacity of advanced process foundries like TSMC and Samsung is fully booked through 2027, with the expansion speed of new capacity struggling to meet rapidly growing market demand.
The memory chip market also shows clear divergence. DRAM spot prices increased by over 30% in the first half of 2026, but contract price increases were relatively moderate at about 15%. NAND flash prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with an overall increase of about 10% in the first half. This divergence is mainly due to different demand for memory chips in different application areas. Data centers and AI applications have strong demand for high-capacity, high-performance memory chips, while the consumer electronics market is relatively weak.
Investment Logic and Future Trends
Facing the profound changes in the global chip supply-demand landscape, investors need to re-examine the investment logic of the semiconductor industry. In the short term, AI chips and automotive electronics sectors have the most investment value, especially companies with technical barriers and capacity advantages; in the long term, upstream segments such as semiconductor equipment, materials, and design software have higher investment certainty.
Specifically, the following areas deserve attention: First, AI chip design and manufacturing segments, especially companies with advanced process capabilities and high-bandwidth memory technology; second, automotive electronics chip segments, especially suppliers of high-performance computing chips for intelligent driving and electric vehicles; third, semiconductor equipment segments, as advanced process capacity expands, demand for key equipment such as lithography machines and etching machines will continue to grow; finally, semiconductor material segments, especially suppliers of key materials such as high-end photoresists and large silicon wafers.
For Vietnam's semiconductor industry, it is crucial to seize the opportunities of global supply chain restructuring. Vietnam should fully leverage its advantages in labor costs and geopolitics, focusing on developing packaging and testing, chip design, and semiconductor materials, gradually extending upstream in the value chain. At the same time, strengthening talent development and technological innovation to enhance industrial competitiveness is essential for occupying a more favorable position in the global semiconductor industry landscape.
Looking ahead, the global chip supply-demand landscape will continue to be in dynamic adjustment. The continuous breakthroughs in AI technology and the deepening development of automotive electronics will continue to drive chip demand growth, while the regional restructuring of the supply chain and capacity expansion will gradually alleviate supply shortages. By 2027, the global semiconductor market is expected to enter a relatively balanced state, but AI chips and automotive electronics chips will maintain growth rates higher than the industry average.
In conclusion, the global chip supply-demand landscape in 2026 is at a historic turning point. The dual engines of AI and automotive electronics are reshaping the industry landscape, bringing new opportunities and challenges to the entire industry chain. For investors, grasping this trend and precisely positioning emerging segments and companies with growth potential will be key to achieving excess returns. For Vietnam's semiconductor industry, seizing the historic opportunity of global supply chain restructuring, accelerating industrial upgrading and talent development, will hopefully secure a place in the global semiconductor industry map.
